基于Tripod-Beta模型的船舶火灾事故风险分析

为深入分析船舶火灾事故风险因素及其后果产生的影响,通过分析1991-2017年全球船舶火灾事故调查报告,从人员、管理、船舶设备、货物、环境5个方面对船舶火灾影响因素进行识别研究;采用三脚架事故致因模型(Tripod-Beta model),构建考虑安全栅的船舶火灾事故情景演化模型,识别船舶火灾关键影响因素;并在样本量较少的情况下,采用信息扩散理论计算船舶火灾发生率;最后,利用布尔函数和风险矩阵,对船舶火灾事故风险进行评价研究。结果表明:船员不安全行为和船舶设备表面过热、设备短路是船舶火灾事故的关键风险因素;事故后果链中安全栅遭到破坏时,船舶火灾风险处于不希望发生范围内。该方法能有效评估船舶火灾风险的等级,满足海事管理部门的监管工作需求。     

单芯铜线过电流故障电弧熔痕的微观特征研究*

为准确认定电气火灾中过电流故障，模拟4~7倍额定电流（Ie）条件下单芯铜导线过电流故障，利用光学显微镜和扫描电子显微镜（SEM）分析过电流故障电弧熔痕的组织特征，并结合Image-Pro Plus软件测定晶粒直径、周长和面积，探究金相组织的量化判据和变化规律。结果表明:当I＝4Ie时，过电流故障电弧熔痕的金相组织主要为方向性较强的树枝晶；当I＝5Ie，6Ie时，金相组织内树枝晶占比减小，胞状晶占比升高；当I＝7Ie时，方向性较弱的胞状晶占主导。随着电流增加，晶粒的平均直径、周长和面积均呈增长趋势。通过火灾案例分析可知，实验结果与现场的电弧熔痕组织特征基本相符，验证火灾事故原因为过电流故障。     

Why are powered two wheeler riders still fatally injured in road junction crashes? – A causation analysis

Introduction: Powered Two Wheeler (PTW) crashes continue to be a road safety concern with a plateauing of the number of associated fatalities. Method: Forty one UK fatal or serious injury crashes involving a PTW and another vehicle at a junction were examined. Crash causation was analysed using the Driver Reliability and Error Analysis Method (DREAMv3.2). Crashes were split into two groups: Group A, where the other vehicle was travelling in the opposite direction to the PTW and commenced a right turn across the PTW’s path; and Group B where the other vehicle turned right out of a side road (or entrance) across the PTW’s path. Results: Overall, the factor that led directly to the crash (phenotype) was most commonly ‘too high speed’ or ‘too late action’ for the motorcyclist and ‘too early action’ for the other driver. Missed or late observations were contributory factors for both PTW riders and other vehicle drivers. Some differences between groups were observed with the PTW riders in Group B more likely to have ‘insufficient skills’ and the other vehicle drivers in Group A more likely to have ‘attention allocation’ as a causation factor. For both groups the crashes occurred because the other vehicle failed to give way to the PTW with causation chains that suggest ‘looked but failed to see’ is still an issue in this type of crash. The excessive speed of the PTW contributed to some crashes. Conclusions: This analysis suggests that drivers failing to give way to PTW riders at junctions is still a problem. This may relate to the ‘looked but did not see’ phenomenon. Causation differences were observed between the examined groups. Practical considerations: The DREAM methodology is an effective tool in analysing crash data from police collision investigation reports. Different countermeasures may be necessary to prevent different types of junction crashes.     

我国环境监测方法标准体系的现状与发展构想

综述了我国环境监测方法标准体系的发展历程和现状,分析了环境监测方法标准在数量和内容及技术水平等方面不能满足环境管理需要、方法标准体系不健全、科学性有待提高等问题,提出加强环境监测方法标准的顶层设计、构建天地一体化的环境监测方法标准体系、实行动态管理并加强质控、加强监测科研借鉴国际经验等发展构想。     

Time perspective balance and team adaptation in dynamic task contexts

The concept of time perspective balance has attracted increased attention from scholars in the past decade, reflected in published evidence suggesting positive outcomes ranging from enhanced mood to life satisfaction for those individuals possessing balance among their past, present, and future time perspectives, and assumedly able to shift their time perspective to match situational demands. In this paper, we consider the notion of time perspective balance in an organizational setting within which much consequential adaptation often occurs—the team environment—and explore different configurations of time perspective balance in teams facing dynamic task contexts. Drawing from work on situational awareness, we first consider the mechanism by which time perspective balance likely influences individual adaptation in dynamic task-focused situations. Next, we postulate what types of team configurations—ones with more balanced time perspective uniformity or ones with more time perspective variety—might be more appropriate in dynamic contexts given key team conditions. We illustrate our analysis with examples from healthcare team settings and offer ideas for future research.     

Environmental forensic investigation of the air pollution from a cement manufacturing unit

Abstract

Cement manufacturing is a process that results in the emission of significant quantities of suspended particulate matter (SPM) to the ambient air. An environmental forensic investigation was carried out in the surroundings of a major cement manufacturing unit at a place called Coimbatore in the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu. The investigation was carried out to identify the contribution of the cement manufacturing unit to the SPM concentration of the surrounding air environment. The sampling points’ selection and sample collection were done following the principles outlined in the INTERPOL Manual for Pollution Crime Forensic Investigation. On-site monitoring of the air samples was carried out using Mini Laser Aerosol Spectrometer (GRIMM, Mini-LAS Model 11R). The instrument was capable of measuring particles ranging from 0.25 to 32 µm and classifying them into 31 size channels. The test results at majority of the monitoring locations were well above the limits specified in the National Ambient Air Quality Standards of India. Microscopic studies of the dust samples were carried out for surface texture and particle shape. The spatial distribution of particles was analysed using geographic information system (GIS) for the visual identification of the extent of the pollution by keeping the cement factory as the focal point. The results from the GIS and microscopic analysis established the role of the cement factory in the particulate matter pollution of its surroundings, specifically in the areas North-West of the factory. The successfully adopted procedure can serve as a guideline for the environmental forensic investigation of similar pollution incidences.     

面向北京冬奥会的态势感知与指挥体系研究*

为全面掌控北京冬奥会运行情况，结合冬奥会概况构建具有全局全过程态势感知能力与指挥体系的运行保障系统。系统阐述冬奥会指挥体系构建的出发点、特点和要求，分析冬奥会态势感知构建基础框架，包括所需数据类型、层级体系和态势汇总共享技术要求。研究表明:体系充分考虑冬奥会及城市运行特点，是冬奥会顺利举办的重要保障，可为冬奥会提供系统构建指导，并为未来大型活动与城市运行态势感知体系构建提供理论支持。     

基于社会技术系统的复工企业疫情防控风险路径研究*

为对复工企业疫情防控中的风险致因因素进行分析，探寻复工企业疫情防控的风险路径，基于社会技术系统理论，建立宏观工效学模型，通过查阅并分析国家、地方政府、企业文件以及相关文献，从人员、技术、组织管理、内部环境及外部环境5个子系统出发，识别出16个复工企业疫情失控致因因素；运用社会网络分析（SNA）构建复工企业疫情防控关系网络，对各因素节点中心度进行计算，分析各节点在网络中的位置及影响程度；采用贝叶斯网络（BN）进行参数学习和推理学习，找出复工企业疫情失控的最大致因链。结果表明:复工企业疫情失控关系网络中，存在政府监督管理不力→防疫物资筹备不足→日常监管不到位，政府监督管理不力→ 防疫宣传、培训缺失→员工防疫知识欠缺，政府监督管理不力→防疫宣传、培训缺失→日常监管不到位3条最长风险路径。研究结果可帮助复工企业针对最长风险路径中的因素进行管理，从而有效地为复工企业防疫提供理论支持。     

我国城乡居民环境维权方式调查分析——以大学生实践及调查问卷为样本

严重的环境污染势必会带来对公民财产和人身的损害。为探寻我国城乡居民环境维权的具体方式,选择了一些地区对其进行了调查。通过调查资料及现场调查内容的汇总分析,发现：不同维权方式、不同的雏权群体、不同环境污染（或生态破坏）类型、不同的环境污染（或生态破坏）的认知度等情形下,会有不同环境维权方式;在环境维权中,公民对政府的依赖性较大;公民理性维权需要政府与相关主体的引导。     

大王滩水库秋季浮游植物分布初探

2011年秋季对大王滩水库开展了藻类采样监测,分别从藻类定性和定量分析入手,分析了种类组成与数量的分布特征,并进行了富营养化评价。监测表明秋季大王滩水库主要是蓝藻门的细鞘丝藻占优势。垂直分布上,表层浮游植物密度大大高于底层密度,从藻类生物量看和从优势种看,大王滩水库秋季可判定为富营养状态。